'When fund managers talk of being bullish for the long term, they assume strong economic growth.' 'That is what they have assumed every year, naively believing the pronouncements and promises of ministers.' 'Unfortunately, they have been wrong year after year,' observes Debashis Basu, editor, www.moneylife.in.
'India imports 70 per cent of its bulk drugs from China. Are we going to live without antibiotics?' asks Debashis Basu.
'When the lockdown grounded a billion people, nothing had been planned well: Testing, masks, face shields, protective gear, medical equipment, contact tracing ... nothing.' 'Before COVID, if you didn't know that the state had neither the money, nor the intent, nor the capacity to govern wisely and humanely, you were simply blind.' 'After COVID, if we continue to look to the State, look forward to a financial package or ask "What is the government doing" when faced with a calamity, the joke is on us, says Debashis Basu.
'The belief that FDI will shift from China appears to be a strategy of politicians to keep the media busy, chasing irrelevant news to ward off pressure and questions about the government's plans to deal with COVID,' observes Debashis Basu.
'MFs acted as reckless lenders and not as prudent investors.' 'Clearly, how debt funds are being run is a systemic issue,' warns Debashis Basu.
'If the epidemic is sharply contained in a month or two, we have a huge buying opportunity. 'If not, we are staring at a serious economic crisis, the contours of which we are totally unaware of,' warns Debashis Basu.
'The assumed linear correlation between forced lower yields, higher bank borrowing from the RBI, higher lending, and higher growth involves leaps of faith, each a step on the quicksand of false beliefs,' warns Debashis Basu.
'Put the assets of PMC Bank and the personal assets of the HDIL promoters and head of PMC Bank in an escrow account and ring-fence it from the ad hoc action of the revenue departments and creditors,' recommends Debashis Basu.
'We can only hope that the government has finally 'got it' and will stay focused on improving productivity, demand, and governance,' says Debashis Basu.
'The deeper problem is big government -- a giant monster with a giant appetite, which requires it to put more and more pressure on tax officials to extort. 'And the monster is getting bigger by the day. But then, Mr Modi too knows this,' says Debashis Basu.
'No Budget has so far has addressed the issue of the government's abysmal productivity of capital spending, improving which will be the big game changer. 'But, the government's tight lock on businesses, banks, education, and even essential services like transportation and large parts of infrastructure and healthcare is destroying capital year after year,' points out Debashis Basu.
'Why are FMPs used as a vehicle for promoter funding against listed shares?' asks Debashis Basu.
For the past 10 years or more, the RBI has been turning down dozens of applications under the RTI Act that sought disclosing the list of wilful defaulters and the RBI's inspection reports. In fact, it is the only organisation that has a granular and complete view of the heist that has been going on for 25 years at least. But it has escaped any blame for the multiple rounds of bankruptcy and massive periodic recapitalisation of public sector banks caused by bad loans. In fact, they don't want anyone to know how incompetent and collusive they have been in handling bad loans, says Debashis Basu.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India does not seem to have understood the enormity of what funds have been up to. If Sebi does not crack down on mutual funds using cooked-up credit ratings to hide behind promoter funding, this is bound to grow into a systemic menace, says Debashis Basu.But MFs decided to become lenders without the legal backing to secure themselves, or the skillset to assess lending risk. If Sebi does not crack down on mutual funds using cooked-up credit ratings to hide behind promoter funding, this is bound to grow into a systemic menace, says Debashis Basu.
Those behind recapitalisation are neither aware nor do they care. After all, they have no skin in this game. And the Lok Sabha elections are round the corner. That's what they care about, points out Debashis Basu.
What was the RBI doing, what was the PNB top management doing, what were the auditors doing, asks Debashis Basu.
To say capital gains from stocks are effortless shows little understanding of the treacherous investing terrain, says Debashis Basu.
The market players were expecting that if long-term gains are taxed, the STT would go. But this has not happened, says Debashis Basu.
While the PM sees zero tax on long-term capital gains and dividend income as unfair since the beneficiaries are not poor, he is silent on the fact that rich farmers too don't pay taxes, since farm income is tax-free, a loophole exploited by many netas and babus, says Debashis Basu.
India borrows ideas that we don't need, like the FRDI Bill, and ignores the ones we need, like rewarding whistleblowers such as the ones who want to save Bombay Mercantile Bank, says Debashis Basu.
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